Oesterreichisches Forschungsinstitut fuer Artificial Intelligence (OeFAI)
Schottengasse 3, A-1010 Wien
Tel.: +43-1-5336112, Fax: +43-1-5320652, Email: sec@ai.univie.ac.at
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VORTRAG
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Prof.Dr.Philip A. SCHRODT
Department of Political Science
University of Kansas
USA
Early Warning of International Conflict Using Hidden Markov Models
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This presentation will discuss the application of hidden Markov
models (HMMs) to the problem of forecasting international conflict.
HMMs are a sequence comparison method widely used in computerized
speech recognition as a computationally efficient method of
generalizing a set of sequences observed in a noisy environment.
An HMM is tested for its ability to correctly discriminate between
crises that involve and do not involve war, and then applied to the
problem of forecasting the outbreak of armed violence between Israel
and Arab forces in southern Lebanon during the period 1979 to 1997.
This research is part of the Kansas Event Data System project
(http://www.ukans.edu/~keds).
Zeit: Donnerstag, 17.September 1998, 18:30 Uhr pktl.
Ort: OeFAI, Schottengasse 3, 1010 Wien 1.
OESTERREICHISCHES FORSCHUNGSINSTITUT
FUER ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
o.Univ.-Prof.Dr.Robert Trappl